PHOENIX - The last time the four Republican presidential contenders met for a debate, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney was fending off a strong challenge from former House speaker Newt Gingrich in Florida and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum was at about 15% in the national polls. What a difference three weeks make.
The momentum gained by Romney's win in Florida was soon washed away by Santorum's sweep of three Feb. 7 contests and subsequent rise in national polls.
The stakes for the debate in Mesa, Ariz., Wednesday night are high for the four remaining contenders: It is the last before the primaries here and in Michigan on Feb. 28, as well as the Super Tuesday contests March 6 in which a series of polls show Romney and Santorum battling it out for delegates.
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The debate will not matter as much in Arizona, where 300,000 have already voted but will have a big impact in Michigan, said Bert Coleman, an Arizona-based political consultant. That makes the stakes particularly high for Romney, he said.
Romney is likely to win Arizona given that he has long led in the polls in the weeks leading up to the primary when early voting began, Coleman said, but a loss in Michigan would be a "tremendous upset."
Recent polls show the Arizona race tightening.
A CNN/Time poll released Tuesday showed Romney with 36%, Santorum 32%, Gingrich 18% and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas with 6%.
A pro-Romney super PAC has backed ads criticizing Santorum's 16-year record in Congress, calling him a free-spending Washington insider. Santorum rejected that characterization.
Only Santorum campaigned in Arizona Tuesday.
He spoke at the Maricopa County Lincoln Day lunch here and called himself the product of a blue-collar upbringing who would fight for middle-class voters.
President Obama, he said, is "trampling" the beliefs of Americans.
"I'm a guy from a steel town who grew up understanding what made this country great, and for years I've been involved in public life and put my heart and effort on the line to make this country the kind of country we all want to hand off to our children and grandchildren," Santorum said.
Lori Leavitt, 48, a firefighter from Phoenix and a Santorum supporter, said the debate will be "huge," because "Romney and Santorum are really neck and neck in Arizona, and I think this is going to give one of them an edge."
Clair Van Steenwyk, a Paul supporter and candidate for the Republican Senate nomination here, said it's possible for Santorum to beat Romney in Arizona.
Not so, said Leo Mahoney, 82, an Army retiree and Romney backer. Most people have already made up their minds.