By Michael Cass and Chas Sisk | The Tennessean
As Republican presidential candidates Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich spent weeks savaging each other across the country with thousands of negative TV ads, rival Rick Santorum managed to remain unscathed -- and found himself soaring on a winning streak.
But as the campaigns turn their attention to Tennessee and nine other Super Tuesday states, Santorum's time for a harsher turn in the spotlight might have arrived.
"Gingrich and Romney have both brought each other down, and Santorum has benefited," said John Geer, a political scientist at Vanderbilt University who specializes in the study of negative political ads. "I suspect that the next two to three weeks are not going to be kind to him."
Tennesseans will start going to the polls today to vote early in the March 6 presidential preference primary, which could help decide who will face President Barack Obama in November. While GOP turnout hasn't been as energetic as expected in several primary and caucus states, the Volunteer State has a chance to have more impact than it typically does two months into the process.
"We are taking nothing for granted in Tennessee and working to earn every vote," Amanda Henneberg, a national spokeswoman for Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, said in a written statement in response to questions Tuesday.
Romney's campaign and his outside supporters, who have seen Santorum surge into a virtual tie in national polls after winning three states last week, seem to have been the most active in Tennessee in recent days.
Restore Our Future, a political action committee backing Romney, became the first -- and so far only -- group to buy TV advertising in Nashville during the primary season. Romney also announced Tuesday that Gov. Bill Haslam, who had already endorsed him, will be the chairman of his Tennessee campaign, while former Gov. Winfield Dunn will lead a slate of 48 delegates Romney could carry to the Republican National Convention this summer.
Although former Pennsylvania Sen. Santorum, former House Speaker Gingrich and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul have been quieter than Romney so far, conservative talk radio host Steve Gill said Tennessee "is shaping up to be a big battleground state on Super Tuesday."
"If they have the money, the Big Three -- Romney, Santorum and Gingrich -- will all devote resources and time to Tennessee," Gill, whose show is based in Nashville and syndicated across the state and nation, wrote in an email. "They and their Super PACs are already dipping their toes into television, and I expect to see radio and direct mail hitting soon.
"Talk radio, in particular, talks directly to the most likely of the likely voters in this primary, so I would expect to see them on the air soon."
A new era in negative ads
Advertisements during the campaign thus far have been unprecedentedly negative, Geer said. He said super PACs, a new form of political action committee, have had a lot to do with that.
Super PACs are a new phenomenon in this year's presidential campaign. Created in the wake of a controversial 2010 ruling on a campaign finance case by the U.S. Supreme Court, super PACs can raise unlimited amounts of money from donors as long as they don't coordinate their activities with the campaigns they support.
They also pay higher advertising rates than the campaigns, said Greg Carter, national sales manager at WKRN-Channel 2, where the Restore Our Future super PAC bought $5,925 worth of commercial spots supporting Romney today through Monday.
While TV stations are required by federal law to offer candidates their lowest ad rates for regular advertisers, "we can charge (PACs) whatever we want," Carter said.
"They're just basically citizens that want to advertise."
Geer said 60 percent of the ads run by the Romney and Gingrich campaigns have been negative, as have 90 percent by their associated super PACs. By comparison, Romney and U.S. Sen. John McCain's ads in 2008 were negative 15 percent of the time.
Now the campaigns are trying to figure out the best strategy in Tennessee, which could become "a pretty important state," Geer added.
Kay White, a Realtor and tea party activist in East Tennessee who is in charge of Santorum's campaign across the state, said she's been working to line up venues in East, Middle and West Tennessee for appearances by the candidate in late February or early March.
"We are getting pretty well organized here," White said last week. "I'm just really getting a good response."
State Rep. Tony Shipley, a co-chairman of Gingrich's campaign in Tennessee, said the campaign's focus has been on grass-roots activity so far.
"People will start seeing more and more activity," he said, adding that Gingrich plans to visit the state before the primary.
Barry Donegan, Middle Tennessee regional coordinator with Paul's campaign, said volunteers have been knocking on doors and making phone calls to voters.
"We're pretty prepared to make contact with every single person we've identified that we think is going to be voting," he said. "We feel pretty confident about our ground game here in Tennessee."
Donegan noted that Paul supporters are known for "spontaneous outside activity" like waving signs and distributing materials to their neighbors.
"The challenge for us is focusing that into useful stuff, like the door to door and phone banking, those things that target actual voters," he said.
Provision allows appointments
In a news release Tuesday, the Romney campaign said it has the only full slate of delegates in the state. But Adam Nickas, executive director of the Tennessee Republican Party, said that's not necessarily a problem for the other candidates because the party's bylaws have a provision allowing its executive committee to appoint delegates in conjunction with a campaign.
"That would be a conversation after the election once we determine who needs to be awarded delegates," Nickas said, noting that the state party will award delegates proportionally based on vote counts.
Romney's campaign also said it will host three organizational events for supporters across the state, including one at Red Rooster Music Hall on Demonbreun Street on Feb. 27. Romney is not scheduled to attend those events, but a campaign official said he might visit Tennessee at another time before the March 6 primary.